Energy Economist

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjun08.pdf

CIBC’s prediction would make oil and natural gas 15% of the global economy - or whatever is left of the global economy in 2010. Economic growth in emerging markets is going to drop quickly and it is race as to whether the rate of oil field decline or the destruction of oil demand will dominate. It is now clear that inflation in emerging markets (caused by slow central bank reactions, excessive increase in the money supply, and high energy and food prices) is going to be the mechanism that cripples global economic growth. It is also essential to remember that high commodity prices are not just a monetary phenomenon: they represent a major structural shift in virtually all economies. In other words, the high cost of replacing historic oil sources is going to cause investment to shift away from projects that have been the foundation of rapid economic growth for much of the globe. In the jargon of economists, the production possibility frontier has shrunk, as the age of cheap oil ends.

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjun08.pdf

CIBC’s prediction would make oil and natural gas 15% of the global economy - or whatever is left of the global economy in 2010. Economic growth in emerging markets is going to drop quickly and it is race as to whether the rate of oil field decline or the destruction of oil demand will dominate. It is now clear that inflation in emerging markets (caused by slow central bank reactions, excessive increase in the money supply, and high energy and food prices) is going to be the mechanism that cripples global economic growth. It is also essential to remember that high commodity prices are not just a monetary phenomenon: they represent a major structural shift in virtually all economies. In other words, the high cost of replacing historic oil sources is going to cause investment to shift away from projects that have been the foundation of rapid economic growth for much of the globe. In the jargon of economists, the production possibility frontier has shrunk, as the age of cheap oil ends.

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjun08.pdf

CIBC’s prediction would make oil and natural gas 15% of the global economy - or whatever is left of the global economy in 2010. Economic growth in emerging markets is going to drop quickly and it is race as to whether the rate of oil field decline or the destruction of oil demand will dominate. It is now clear that inflation in emerging markets (caused by slow central bank reactions, excessive increase in the money supply, and high energy and food prices) is going to be the mechanism that cripples global economic growth. It is also essential to remember that high commodity prices are not just a monetary phenomenon: they represent a major structural shift in virtually all economies. In other words, the high cost of replacing historic oil sources is going to cause investment to shift away from projects that have been the foundation of rapid economic growth for much of the globe. In the jargon of economists, the production possibility frontier has shrunk, as the age of cheap oil ends.